If you think that revenue officials are going berserk, acting on their own, while the government chants the mantra of 'ease of doing business', you would be wrong. These moves appear to have full official backing, points out Debashis Basu.
Swedish behemoth Volvo has charted out an aggressive strategy to become a leader in the country's heavy commercial vehicle sector, following its alliance with the Delhi-based Eicher Motors.
With sentiment for the automotive (auto) sector turning positive, stocks of two-wheeler auto majors have been hitting their 52-week highs. Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor Company, and Eicher Motors recently reached their yearly highs on strong sales in the festival season and the expectation of faster growth rates ahead. Since the start of this month, listed two-wheeler majors have delivered returns in the 12-17 per cent range, compared to the 7 per cent gains for the S&P BSE Auto Index and 3 per cent for the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex.
Auto industry volumes have grown by 2.5 per cent overall, led by domestic sales of three-wheelers, two-wheelers and passenger vehicles (PVs) in the first quarter of this financial year. Analysts predict an 18 per cent growth in revenues for automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and profit growth of 69 per cent year-on-year (YoY). However, on a sequential basis, a decline in revenues as well as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (Ebitda) margins is expected.
Automotive (auto) and auto ancillary stocks have been in the fast lane thus far in 2023-24 (FY24), with the National Stock Exchange Nifty Auto Index surging nearly 27 per cent, outperforming the Nifty50, which has gained roughly 11 per cent during this period. The top-gear performance of auto stocks at the bourses, according to A K Prabhakar, head of research at IDBI Capital, has been triggered by the premiumisation of products across vehicle manufacturers, which has seen vehicle sales remaining relatively stable. "It is not about higher sales figures now, but about premiumisation.
Automobile manufacturers are likely to report strong numbers for the September quarter of Financial Year 2023-24 (Q2 FY24), riding on growth across segments and offset by a marginal drop in overall two-wheeler (2W) volumes. Higher average selling price (ASP) year-on-year (YoY), which was necessitated by price hikes taken by original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), and an improved product mix will also aid revenues and margins. Moreover, commodity prices are down on a YoY basis, leading to higher margins in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda).
The two-wheeler sector has been underperforming its peers on the volumes front for over five quarters now. Even in the March quarter, Bajaj Auto and Hero MotoCorp posted a 17-24 per cent YoY decline in volumes, the sharpest in the listed auto universe. The ongoing impact of frequent price hikes, all-time high fuel prices, and muted rural sentiment has led to the lacklustre showing by two-wheeler makers. What has aggravated the situation for two-wheeler companies, which get almost all their sales from the internal combustion engine or ICE-based units, is the traction for electric two-wheelers (EV).
These were the fastest and most consistent wealth creators over the past 5 years.
TCS, Eicher Motors and Kotak Mahindra Bank have turned out be the fastest and most consistent wealth creators.
Markets this week would be guided by the ongoing quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data announcement and global trends, analysts said. The government will release industrial production data for June and inflation data for July this week. The RBI has revised its retail inflation forecast to 5.7 per cent, up from the earlier 5.1 per cent due to price pressure on account of supply constraints and high crude oil prices.
The domestic benchmark indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 - had lost close to 1.5 per cent in three days recently before gaining slightly. Notwithstanding weakness and volatility, the Nifty50 has managed to hold on to the 18,000 mark, while the Sensex has managed to stay above the 61,000 level. The performance of the stocks that comprise these front-line indices remains polarised.
Auto Expo 2023 may not trigger a fresh rally in automobile stocks, say analysts, as this year's edition lacks participation from major listed players. It is also owing to the focus on electric vehicles (EVs), a segment where four-wheelers have minuscule market share. "In the passenger vehicles (PV) segment, Maruti Suzuki India and Tata Motors are the only listed players.
Cochin Shipyard, BASF India, Ingersoll Rand, Eicher Motors, Federal Bank, and Timken India are some of the firms where voting could have got affected, sources said.
The Mumbai-based firm has lost almost 10 percentage points in market share since 2009-10, even as other brands have fought hard to wrest share away.
Domestic equity markets are likely to see volatility in a range-bound trade this week amid geopolitical worries and growing expectations of a sharp hike in interest rates, analysts said. Global trends, inflation data and the last batch of quarterly earnings will drive the markets this week, they said. Besides, the rupee movement, FII investment pattern and Brent crude trends would also be watched by investors.
Once the upcoming plant at Oragadam is operational, the company will have an annual manufacturing capacity of 150,000 bikes.
The Volvo Group, one of the world's leading heavy-duty commercial vehicle (CV) and diesel engine makers, is engineering a fresh push in India, one of the world's biggest growth markets for commercial vehicles.
The Fed interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data announcements and quarterly earnings will be the major sentiment drivers for the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Investors will also take cues from the monthly auto sales numbers to be announced on Monday. Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for Diwali Laxmi Pujan and on Friday for Diwali Balipratipada.
At Rs 18,400 per share, value up 100 times since Lehman crisis
An analysis of past 20 years' demand cycles done by Edelweiss Securities indicates that the auto sector is currently in the middle of a down cycle. Volume recovery, they say, is unlikely to be as sharp as in the past, unless there is strong fiscal support.
Ajit Mishra, vice president, Research, Religare Broking, answers your queries.
Two years after it hitched a ride with Hero MotoCorp (Hero), Harley-Davidson (Harley) and the Pawan Munjal-led firm are gearing up to ride into the middleweight (midweight) motorcycle segment (350-850cc) in the world's largest two-wheeler market.
With automotive sales entering into a sluggish period, leading commercial vehicle makers are enticing buyers by doling out discounts and lucrative finance options. Tata Motors, for instance, recently run a scheme wherein commercial vehicle buyers would get three months' waiver on equated monthly installments on the vehicle loan. The response, according to the company, was very positive.
After selling brands like Pulsar, Boxer, Platina and RE in over 70 countries, Bajaj Auto plans to enter Thailand this year followed by Brazil next year.
'The correction could take two to three months and traders need to be careful.' 'For investors, this could be a good time to nibble in.'
The most important positive of India's stealth bull market is earnings growth across different sectors, explains Debashis Basu.
Leading tyre maker Apollo also saw a production loss of 450 tonnes till December 2.
Eicher Motors is all set to venture into the all-luxury bus segment with two model launches this financial year.
India's flagship motor show Auto Expo 2023 kicked off on Wednesday with the global unveiling of Suzuki Motor Corporation's concept electric SUV 'eVX' which is slated to hit the market by 2025. The company's Indian arm Maruti Suzuki India is among the major manufacturers participating in the show that has returned after three years. The Concept eVX is a mid-size electric SUV concept designed and developed by Suzuki Motor Corporation (SMC), Japan. It will be powered by a 60 kWh battery pack offering up to 550 km of driving range on single charge.
Germany's Daimler AG, known for its luxury cars and high-end commercial vehicles, has pulled out of the race to acquire a strategic stake in the Delhi-based commercial vehicles maker Eicher Motors.
Experts attribute the high valuation of Indian auto makers to the faster growth in India compared to the rest of the world.
Consumer stocks remain the biggest laggard on the bourses. The Nify50 weighting of FMCG stocks declined to a decade low of 9.9 per cent at the end of March this year, down 150 basis points from 11.4 per cent a year ago. At their peak in March 2013, major FMCG stocks, such as Hindustan Unilever, ITC, and Asian Paints, together accounted for 15 per cent of the Nifty50. But now together with automobile stocks, the consumer goods sector accounts for only 14.7 per cent of the index, down 200 basis points in the past 12 months and 37 per cent from the record high weighting of 23.4 per cent at the end of March 2014.
Eicher had announced in July this year that it was interested in an alliance or a strategic partnership to become a full-range commercial vehicle player. It currently makes light and medium trucks. MIL makes only heavy trucks.
The all-new bikes with a 500 cc engine will target exports, while the 350 cc engine bikes will be marketed in the domestic market from the current financial year.
At the core of the new joint venture is an attack on Tata Motors, which dominates the commercial vehicle sector in the world's fourth-largest market for heavy trucks.
Can the Bajaj-Triumph tie up overtake the beloved Royal Enfield?
The company reported on Tuesday 10 per cent increase in commercial vehicle sales in June at 2,464 units, while its year-to-date sales also grew by 14 per cent compared to the same period last year.
Reliance Industries accounted for Rs 6.3 trillion in wealth created since 1995; closest rival was Hindustan Unilever which was at Rs 4.9 trillion.
